Bolsonaro Allies Face Major Political and Legal Blow Amid Supreme Court and International Defeats

Brazil's political landscape has been shaken by significant setbacks facing allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, both on the domestic judicial front and in international political arenas. A recent ruling by Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes has annulled a previous decision that preserved Deputy Carla Zambelli's mandate and now mandates her cassation, leading to potential shifts in parliamentary representation. Meanwhile, internationally, the Bolsonaro faction experienced a critical defeat with the removal of Minister Moraes from the Magnitsky Act sanctions list—an effort orchestrated by Bolsonaro allies Eduardo Bolsonaro and Paulo Figueiredo that failed to materialize.

Hugo Motta, President of the Chamber of Deputies, convened with his legal team to analyze the Supreme Court's order, which deemed the Chamber's prior vote to reject Zambelli's mandate loss unconstitutional. Minister Moraes criticized the Chamber's defiance as a blatant violation of the Constitution, emphasizing that the judiciary holds the authority to determine the loss of mandates for parliamentarians convicted of crimes, with the Chamber's role limited to administrative actions. Motta indicated he has until Monday to respond to the ruling, with the likely outcome being Zambelli's cassation and the appointment of her substitute, Adilson Barroso.

Simultaneously, the international defeat highlights the miscalculations of the Bolsonaro faction's political and economic strategies. Attempts to impose economic sanctions and tariffs against Brazil, including prohibitive tariffs up to 50%, backfired, largely due to President Lula’s successful negotiations leading to the lifting of restrictions. This victory bolsters Lula’s political standing ahead of the 2026 elections and exposes the Bolsonaro camp's insufficient understanding of Brazil’s global economic relevance.

These developments mark a clear diminution of Bolsonaro’s influence, both domestically and globally. While internal legal mechanisms reaffirm the authority of the Supreme Court over legislative impunity, the international context underscores Bolsonaro allies’ strategic failures in leveraging economic sanctions for political gains. As Lula consolidates his position, these defeats could reshape Brazil’s political power dynamics ahead of critical elections.