Brazil Faces National Security Risks Over Fertilizer Dependency Amid Rising Oil Prices
Brazil’s reliance on imported fertilizers amid rising oil prices raises national security concerns, prompting delayed policy actions and Petrobras’ efforts to increase domestic production by 2029.
- • Brazil heavily depends on imported fertilizers, risking food security and economic stability due to rising oil prices over $100 per barrel.
- • The National Fertilizer Plan was delayed until 2022 despite initial plans in 2010, indicating low policy priority.
- • Government increased fertilizer taxes last year, conflicting with efforts to boost domestic production.
- • Petrobras aims to reduce fertilizer imports by 35% by 2029 through reactivating production plants, facing challenges including high gas prices and vested interests.
Key details
Brazil is grappling with a critical national security issue as its heavy reliance on imported fertilizers jeopardizes food security and economic stability. The recent surge in oil prices, surpassing $100 per barrel, has intensified concerns about the country’s vulnerability in this sector. Despite Brazil being one of the world's largest agricultural producers, it imports a substantial portion of its fertilizers, exposing it to global market fluctuations exacerbated by conflicts such as those in the Middle East.
The National Fertilizer Plan, originally intended for launch in 2010, was delayed until 2022, reflecting a longstanding lack of prioritization. This delay occurs while key domestic production facilities have shut down—three of six ammonia plants in Cubatão closed between 2024 and 2025—and the government simultaneously raised fertilizer taxes last year, counterproductive to domestic production incentives.
In response, Petrobras is working to reactivate fertilizer plants in Bahia, Sergipe, Paraná, and Mato Grosso, aiming to reduce Brazil’s dependency on imported urea by 35% by 2029. However, challenges persist, including high domestic gas prices and opposition from interest groups such as fertilizer exporters and gas transporters.
Agricultural analyst Marcello Brito highlights that without decisive action from the federal government in Brasília to prioritize fertilizer policy, Brazil’s agriculture—contributing about 30% to the national GDP—will remain reliant on foreign markets, risking inflation, food security, and export stability.
This article was translated and synthesized from Brazilian sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
