Brazil's 2025/26 Grain Season Sees Record Harvest Forecast and Historic Physical Grain Derivative Delivery
Brazil projects a record 354.8 million tons grain harvest for 2025/26 alongside the historic first physical grain derivative delivery in over 15 years, advancing its agricultural market sophistication.
- • Brazil's 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 354.8 million tons, with a 3.3% increase in planted area to 84.4 million hectares.
- • Soybeans area is projected to rise 3.6%, producing 177.6 million tons; corn production expected to decline by 1.6% to 138.8 million tons.
- • Balção Agrícola do Brasil completed the first physical delivery of grain derivative contracts in Brazil in over 15 years, delivering 1,800 tons of corn at Rumo's terminal.
- • BAB platform facilitates bilateral negotiations reducing basis risk and saw a 14-fold transaction volume increase in October versus September.
Key details
Brazil is forecasted to harvest 354.8 million tons of grains in the 2025/26 agricultural season, with production spanning 84.4 million hectares—a 3.3% expansion compared to the previous season, according to the Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). Soybean cultivation is projected to increase by 3.6% to 49.1 million hectares, producing approximately 177.6 million tons. Corn production is expected at 138.8 million tons, marking a slight 1.6% decline, while rice output is projected to dip by 11.5% due to reduced planting areas. Beans are estimated to maintain stable production levels. Despite some regional challenges like adverse weather in southern states and irregular rainfall affecting planting schedules, the overall outlook remains robust.
In a significant development for Brazil’s grain markets, the Balcão Agrícola do Brasil (BAB) completed the country's first physical delivery of a grain derivative contract in over 15 years. This landmark transaction involved delivering 1,800 tons of corn at Rumo’s terminal in Rondonópolis, with plans to deliver an additional 9,000 tons within November. BAB’s CEO Eric Cardoni emphasized the platform’s role in integrating derivative contracts with physical grain markets, enhancing risk management and reducing basis risk for market participants. Since its September 2025 launch and regulatory approval by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), BAB has seen transaction volumes surge fourteenfold in October compared to September, reflecting strong market interest.
This convergence of record grain production and innovative market mechanisms signals Brazil’s growing sophistication in agricultural markets, providing farmers and traders with more efficient tools amid global commodity volatility.
This article was synthesized and translated from native language sources to provide English-speaking readers with local perspectives.