Brazil's Soybean Spot Market Heats Up Amid Record 2024/25 Export Estimates

Brazil’s soybean spot market has seen a notable surge in activity as the 2024/25 harvest approaches its conclusion. According to new data from the National Supply Company (Conab), soybean exports for this season have been revised upwards to a record 106.97 million tons, marking a 0.3% increase from previous estimates. By December 5, 98.88% of this volume had already been shipped, indicating an accelerated pace of exports.

The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) highlights that this heightened market momentum is fueled by increased demand to complete cargo shipments at Brazilian ports. Additionally, recent Conab estimates point to a reduction in carryover stocks from last season, which has pressured the market by tightening supply.

This combination of strong export demand and smaller carryover inventories has led to a rise in export premiums and domestic soybean prices within Brazil. In contrast, the corn market has experienced price declines due to weaker domestic demand and projections of abundant national supply for the 2025/26 harvest.

Looking ahead, Conab’s outlook for the 2025/26 harvest remains optimistic despite forecasting a slight 1.5% reduction from the current season. The estimated 138.87 million tons will still represent the second-largest soybean harvest since 1976. Recent rains in key agricultural regions have also improved conditions for summer crops and the upcoming second planting season, alleviating concerns about weather impacts.

The interplay of robust export shipments, supply adjustments, and favorable weather signals a dynamic environment for Brazil’s soybean sector as it approaches year-end. Market participants remain watchful for price movements, with sellers anticipating a potential rebound in early 2026 after current demand surges.