Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Presidential Race

Recent polling by Datafolha indicates President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holds a stable lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. In a hypothetical second-round runoff, Lula garners 48% of voter intentions compared to Bolsonaro’s 43%, maintaining the same lead observed in June’s Datafolha poll where Lula had 47% and Bolsonaro 43%. Additionally, 9% of respondents said they would vote blank, null, or for none of the candidates, while 1% remained undecided.

In first-round voting intentions, Lula leads with 40% support, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 32%, both figures varying within the margin of error. The survey, conducted from July 22 to 24 among 2,004 participants, carries a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of 2%, registered under number BR-01166/2026 at the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).

Lula also leads against other contenders in potential second-round scenarios, securing 47% against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)'s 40%, and maintaining 48% against Romeu Zema (Novo), whose support rose slightly from 39% to 40%. These stable leads highlight Lula's strong positioning as the presidential race progresses.

The Datafolha poll underscores a significant challenge ahead for Bolsonaro’s camp, with Lula maintaining an edge in voter intention despite continuing fragmentation within the right-wing political spectrum. Although not directly related to the national race, political experts have noted that right-wing fragmentation is affecting elections at the state level, such as in Minas Gerais, where right-wing candidates struggle against left-wing opponents, illustrating the broader political challenges facing Bolsonaro’s coalition.

The presidential race remains competitive, but Lula’s steady numbers suggest he holds a meaningful advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro as the 2026 elections approach.