Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Neck-and-Neck in October 2026 Polls with High Voter Support on Key Issues

Recent polling data from two distinct surveys highlight a tightly contested presidential race between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Lula (PT) as of mid-October 2026. According to an Ipespe poll conducted from October 13 to 15 with 1,500 respondents, Bolsonaro leads Lula with 51.2% of voting intentions compared to Lula's 48.8%. This 2.4-point margin represents a decline from Bolsonaro's previous advantage of 5.4 points and falls within the poll’s 2.6 percentage point margin of error, indicating a technical tie. Both candidates share the same rejection rate of 47%, signaling evenly matched public sentiment in voter willingness to support either candidate.

Complementing these findings, a Datafolha poll conducted on October 13 and 14 with 2,520 respondents shows wide voter support for the reduction of the criminal majority age—a contentious policy issue—with 89% of Bolsonaro’s supporters and 70% of Lula’s backers favoring this measure. This demonstrates significant alignment among voters across the political spectrum on key policy preferences.

These surveys, each with a 95% confidence level and respective margins of error of 2 to 3 percentage points, provide a snapshot of an election race that is effectively tied in voter preference, with both candidates facing similar levels of voter rejection and varied but strong issue support among their bases. Bolsonaro’s lead in voting intentions has somewhat diminished, while Lula has made modest gains in spontaneous support.

The polling landscape reflects an electorate deeply engaged and divided at this crucial juncture in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, with shifts in support tightening the race considerably. Observers note the importance of these results for campaign strategies in the closing weeks before the vote.