Flávio Bolsonaro Mirrors 2018 Campaign Strategy Amidst Rio de Janeiro Political Shifts
Flávio Bolsonaro adopts his father’s 2018 campaign tactics to boost his presidential bid, while Rio de Janeiro’s political right aligns to secure state leadership amid his candidacy.
- • Flávio Bolsonaro is utilizing early ministerial announcements to gain political influence, echoing Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 strategy.
- • The appointment of Eduardo Bolsonaro as a potential Foreign Affairs Minister has raised political concerns.
- • Political shifts in Rio de Janeiro are underway with Douglas Ruas emerging as a gubernatorial candidate amid the arrest of Legislative Assembly president Rodrigo Bacellar.
- • Nicola Miccione is the frontrunner for temporary leadership of Rio's state government as Cláudio Castro plans to run for Senate amid a R$19 billion state deficit.
Key details
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is replicating his father Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 presidential campaign tactics in his bid for the 2026 presidency, emphasizing early ministerial announcements to build political clout and secure support from the Centrão and financial markets. He has indicated his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro as a candidate for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a choice that analysts deem politically risky given resistance from key Centrão leaders. Flávio aims to reassure markets by revealing potential cabinet members during his campaign, a strategy reminiscent of his father's introduction of Paulo Guedes as Economy Minister in 2018. However, experts caution that this approach could face greater challenges in 2026, with Centrão factions reportedly favoring São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas instead.
Simultaneously, Flávio's presidential pre-candidacy is influencing political maneuvering in Rio de Janeiro. The arrest of Rodrigo Bacellar, president of the state's Legislative Assembly, has reopened discussions about the succession of the governorship under Cláudio Castro (PL), who plans to pursue a Senate seat and must step down by early April. The right-wing in Rio, seeking strong local backing for Flávio's campaign, is consolidating support around Douglas Ruas (PL), the state's secretary of Cities, despite risks to his political future amid competition from popular figures like Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD).
Additionally, Nicola Miccione, State Secretary of the Civil House and considered a technical expert, is positioned as the frontrunner for temporary leadership of Rio’s state government until the next elections. This interim appointment is viewed as a strategic compromise between Castro and Paes, designed to avoid strengthening potential rivals ahead of the October elections. The state faces a significant financial challenge with a projected deficit of R$19 billion for 2026, necessitating stringent budget cuts and complicating the political landscape further.
The reorganization among Rio’s right and Centrão has stemmed from dissatisfaction with Paes, who has been reluctant to share key administrative positions. Despite pressures, pivotal departments like Health and Education are expected to remain under Paes’s influence. Meanwhile, the ideal vice-gubernatorial candidate remains debated, with Rogério Lisboa (PP) favored and Campos dos Goytacazes mayor Wladimir Garotinho also seeking the role despite past conflicts with Paes.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign and the shifting Rio de Janeiro political dynamics illustrate the interplay between national ambitions and local power struggles, highlighting the complexities ahead for the 2026 elections.
This article was synthesized and translated from native language sources to provide English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
