Flávio Bolsonaro Proposes Minimum Wage Policy Aligned More with Lula's Approach Than His Father's

Flávio Bolsonaro, a presidential candidate for the 2026 election, has announced plans to increase the minimum wage above inflation if elected, signaling a policy direction closer to that of former President Lula than his own father, Jair Bolsonaro. According to a campaign note obtained by VEJA, Flávio promises there will be no cuts to social benefits or pensions amid these adjustments. However, his campaign has yet to specify the calculation criteria for these wage increases, and his official program submitted to the Electoral Court does not explicitly mention potential minimum wage rises or freezes.

Historically, Lula’s government from 2004 implemented a minimum wage policy that guaranteed real increases by linking adjustments to both past inflation and GDP growth. This approach resulted in wage increases beyond inflation except during economic recessions. In contrast, Jair Bolsonaro’s administration (2019–2022) adjusted the minimum wage solely in line with inflation, not allowing real income growth. Upon Lula’s return to office in 2023, real increases resumed, though the 2024 update by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad capped real wage hikes at 2.5% to conform with new fiscal rules.

The Brazilian Constitution mandates that the minimum wage must at least keep pace with inflation, a baseline Flávio Bolsonaro aims to surpass. His emphasis on compensating for economic challenges under Lula’s past administration demonstrates a nuanced stance distinct from his father’s policies.

Though details remain sparse regarding the mechanisms for adjustment, Flávio Bolsonaro’s position suggests a potential return to Lula-style social economic policies, focusing on real wage growth and preserving social benefits, contrasting sharply with previous inflation-only adjustments. This move could have significant implications for Brazil’s labor market and social programs if implemented post-election.