Fragmentation Deepens Among Brazil's Right-Wing Ahead of 2026 Elections

The announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro as a potential right-wing presidential candidate for Brazil's 2026 elections has disrupted previously emerging alliances among prominent governors on the right, complicating the opposition landscape against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. This development has introduced significant fragmentation within the right-wing political bloc, which had earlier shown signs of unity on key issues such as public safety and political amnesty.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro's indication that Flávio, his son, would be his representative in the elections has led to a reshuffle of ambitions among key figures. Tarcísio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo affiliated with Republicanos, has expressed support for Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy but plans to seek re-election as governor rather than the presidency. Meanwhile, both Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás (União Brasil) remain committed to pursuing their own presidential bids, rejecting the idea of stepping aside for Flávio. Zema has dismissed the idea of serving as a vice-presidential candidate, underscoring his own ambitions.

Amid this evolving scenario, Ratinho Jr., governor of Paraná (PSD), is gaining momentum as an alternative candidate. Tarcísio has suggested the possibility of a vice-presidential ticket involving Zema or Ratinho, signaling shifting dynamics within the right-wing rank. Nevertheless, the PSD, led by Gilberto Kassab, has publicly stated they will not support Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy, indicating a possible Ratinho-Zema ticket could materialize instead.

Further complicating the political environment are funding maneuvers linked to Eduardo Cunha, former president of the Chamber of Deputies. Although out of office since 2016 and ineligible for parliamentary amendments, Cunha managed to direct R$1 million to João Pinheiro via an amendment facilitated by Gilberto Abramo, Republicanos' leader in the Chamber. This maneuvering, seen partly as a strategy for Cunha’s electoral comeback, raises concerns around the transparency of commission amendments, flagged by Supreme Court Minister Flávio Dino.

The competing ambitions and alliance uncertainties among right-wing governors suggest a fragmented opposition in the upcoming election, diminishing the possibility of a unified front to challenge the incumbent Lula administration. The situation remains fluid, with key players positioning themselves amid shifting loyalties and strategic decisions as the electoral cycle intensifies.