Lula Adopts Cautious Stance on Venezuela Amid Regional Diplomacy Shifts

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has moderated his tone on the Venezuela issue following initial strong criticism of U.S. involvement. The Brazilian government views the recent rapprochement between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as reducing the traditional political pressure on Lula stemming from his party's historical ties to chavismo. Despite internal opposition parties likely exploiting Lula’s Venezuela connections during the upcoming election campaign, Lula’s team believes that the electorate remains primarily focused on domestic matters such as tax relief for low-income earners and labor reforms.

Since 2024, Lula has distanced himself from Nicolás Maduro, notably not recognizing Maduro’s disputed re-election and criticizing actions such as Maduro’s capture as "kidnapping" without formally endorsing his regime. Trump's explicit recognition of Rodríguez as a key Venezuelan interlocutor is seen by Lula’s allies as alleviating political pressures on the Brazilian president.

Simultaneously, Trump has invited Lula to join a new "Council of Peace," dedicated to enhancing governance capacity, regional relations, reconstruction, and investment projects. This invitation occurs amid a complex geopolitical environment highlighted by Lula’s previous description of the Gaza conflict as "genocide" and a Brazilian minister’s characterization of ongoing violence as "carnificina," in a context where Brazil’s diplomatic relations with Israel remain distant.

While concerns linger regarding potential U.S. interference in Brazil’s elections—intensified by Trump’s unpredictable politics and examples from other Latin American contests—the improving Lula-Trump rapport may reduce fears of direct Washington interventions. Lula thus navigates a delicate balance of regional diplomacy and domestic political calculations as the election nears.