Lula Expands Overseas Lead, Winning Majority of Brazilian Votes Abroad in 2026 Runoff

In the runoff of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has significantly expanded his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro among Brazilian voters residing overseas, securing victories across a broad spectrum of countries and continents. With nearly one million Brazilians eligible to vote abroad, Lula captured around 63.5% of the diaspora vote against Bolsonaro's 36.5%, according to partial results released by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).

Lula's support surged noticeably compared to the first round, driven by a sharp reduction in abstention rates in several key locations. In New Zealand, for example, Lula raised his share from 70% in the first round to over 80%, gathering 418 votes out of 526, while turnout jumped from 339 voters previously. Australia mirrored this trend, with Lula achieving 64% of the vote and adding nearly 1,000 votes more than in the first round. China also showed an eight-point increase for Lula, who earned 73% of its votes. Overall, Lula triumphed in most countries across Europe, Oceania, and parts of Asia, including victories in South Korea and Singapore.

Despite these gains, Bolsonaro maintained his lead in some Asian countries. In Japan, the third-largest Brazilian electoral base abroad, Bolsonaro garnered 80% of the vote, though his margin shrank compared to the first round. He also held wins in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. Notably, Lula reversed a first-round deficit in India by narrowly winning 52.08% of the votes on a lower 34% turnout.

The voting period abroad spanned 29 hours from New Zealand to Canada, reflecting a challenging geography for turnout. Abstention was initially high in places like the U.S., Spain, and Italy but showed signs of decline in specific zones.

According to the BBC and CNN Brasil, Lula led in 25 of 26 European countries, with standout performances including 95.6% in Palestine and substantial margins in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The diaspora electorate accounts for just over 0.5% of Brazil’s overall voting base, and voting abroad is mandatory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70, mirroring domestic rules.

Lula's strong showings abroad underscore his ability to mobilize the Brazilian diaspora and challenge Bolsonaro's pockets of regional strength, setting the tone for Brazil’s political landscape moving forward as final official results await confirmation.