Lula Holds Strong Lead Over Right-Wing Rivals Ahead of 2026 Election
Lula leads all major right-wing rivals in polls for the 2026 election but faces a nearly split approval rating amid communication challenges.
- • Lula leads all hypothetical first-round matchups against right-wing candidates, including Flávio Bolsonaro.
- • He holds a 10-point advantage over Flávio in second-round polling scenarios.
- • Lula’s government approval is almost evenly split, with 48% approval and 49% disapproval.
- • Flávio Bolsonaro faces high rejection (60%) and difficulties uniting opposition voters despite Bolsonaro endorsement.
Key details
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a commanding lead in polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, outperforming all major right-wing contenders including members of the Bolsonaro family.
According to a recent AtlasIntel survey conducted in partnership with Bloomberg, Lula leads in every hypothetical first-round scenario. He outperforms Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a prominent right-wing candidate, by a decisive 48.1% to 29.3%. Lula’s margin against Flávio narrows in the second round to a 10-point lead but remains significant. The survey, which included 18,154 respondents and has a margin of error of 1%, also shows Lula with commanding leads over other right-wing contenders: a 32.5 percentage point advantage over Ronaldo Caiado and 20.5 points against Tarcísio de Freitas. Lula’s largest lead is against Eduardo Leite, standing at 25%.
Despite Lula’s strong polling position, a separate Genial/Quaest poll presents a more nuanced view of his government’s approval, with approval at 48% and disapproval at 49%. Lula addressed this, dismissing the close approval ratings by suggesting the population is still not fully aware of his administration’s accomplishments and pointing to a need for better communication by ministers.
Regarding Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula recognized him as a serious adversary but highlighted his high rejection rate of 60% among voters familiar with him. The Genial/Quaest poll indicates that Bolsonaro’s endorsement of Flávio is viewed negatively by 54% of respondents, potentially weakening Flávio’s ability to unify opposition support. Lula also showed resilience against former President Jair Bolsonaro in hypothetical second-round matchups, holding a narrow 50% to 46% lead, even though Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to run.
As the 2026 election approaches, Lula appears well-positioned to secure re-election amid economic improvements and fragmented opposition, while his government faces challenges in enhancing public awareness of its achievements.
This article was translated and synthesized from Brazilian sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
Source articles (2)
Source comparison
Poll results for Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro
Sources report different poll results for Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro.
oglobo.globo.com
"Lula achieves between 34% and 41% of voter intention compared to Flávio's 21% to 27%."
valor.globo.com
"Lula wins against Flávio by 48.1% to 29.3%."
Why this matters: The first source states Lula would achieve between 34% and 41% against Flávio's 21% to 27%, while the second source provides specific figures of 48.1% for Lula and 29.3% for Flávio. This discrepancy in reported percentages could significantly alter perceptions of Lula's electoral strength.
Survey sample size and margin of error
Sources report different sample sizes and margins of error for their polls.
oglobo.globo.com
"The survey was conducted with 2,004 interviews and has a margin of error of 2%."
valor.globo.com
"The poll was conducted with 18,154 respondents from December 10 to 15, and has a margin of error of 1%."
Why this matters: The first source mentions a sample size of 2,004 with a margin of error of 2%, while the second source states a sample size of 18,154 with a margin of error of 1%. These differences in methodology could affect the reliability and interpretation of the poll results.