Lula Leads Nationally, Flávio Bolsonaro Dominates Among Evangelicals as Campaigns Heat Up in 2026 Race

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his reelection campaign in Minas Gerais at a large rally in Praça da Estação, Belo Horizonte, drawing on his union roots and the legacy of his party in the state. Without naming him directly, Lula criticized his main challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, signaling a competitive and charged electoral atmosphere ahead of the October vote.

A recent Datafolha poll conducted on August 18-19 surveyed 2,058 voters and confirms Lula’s position as the frontrunner with 47% of second-round voting intentions against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43%. These figures closely mirror the July poll results, showing a relatively stable race. Lula’s support is strongest among women (51% vs. 38%), Black voters (55% vs. 37%), low-income families earning up to two minimum wages (55% vs. 35%), and in the Northeast region where he leads 61% to 30%. In contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro commands a decisive advantage among evangelical voters (62% vs. 29%) and wealthier voters making over five minimum wages (54% vs. 39%). He also leads in the South (50% vs. 38%) with statistical ties occurring in the Southeast and Central-West/North regions.

This demographic divide highlights the polarized electorate, with Lula’s coalition primarily comprising women, Black communities, lower-income groups, and Catholics, while Bolsonaro’s strength lies in evangelical constituencies and higher-income brackets. The margin of error for the poll is two percentage points, underscoring a contest that remains competitive but with clear voter base distinctions.

As Lula intensifies his campaign activities in key states like Minas Gerais and maintains a steady national lead, Flávio Bolsonaro’s ability to mobilize evangelical and affluent voters will be critical. Both candidates face the challenge of broadening their appeal in Brazil’s diverse electorate as the campaign enters a decisive phase.