Lula Opens Clear Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro in Latest 2026 Presidential Poll Amid Intensifying Campaign Activities
Latest poll shows Lula leading Bolsonaro in Brazil's 2026 presidential race as candidates ramp up campaign events nationwide.
- • Lula leads with 39% against Bolsonaro's 34% in recent Quaest poll.
- • Margin of error is 2% with 95% confidence, confirming Lula's lead.
- • Other candidates hold minimal support: Cury, Caiado 4%; Santos 3%; Zema 1%.
- • Campaign intensifies with Lula active in northern Brazil and Bolsonaro in São Paulo.
Key details
A recent Quaest poll conducted between September 24 and 27 reveals that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president and current Workers' Party (PT) candidate, maintains a solid lead in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Lula recorded 39% of voter intention, outpacing Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), who garnered 34%. This marks a notable shift from last week's technical tie, as the current five-point difference surpasses the poll's 2% margin of error, confirming Lula's front-runner status.
Other candidates trail notable distance behind: Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) each hold 4%, Renan Santos (Missão) 3%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) 1%. The survey, polling 2,004 individuals aged 16 and older with a 95% confidence level, notes a decrease in undecided voters and increased support for Lula among women and lower-income demographics.
As election day approaches, candidates are intensifying their campaign efforts nationwide. On September 28, Lula focused on key events in Belém and Manaus to energize supporters. Flávio Bolsonaro took to the streets in São Paulo's Brás neighborhood and visited the Mercadão market to connect with voters. Ronaldo Caiado led a walk in Goiânia's Jardim Guanabara, while Augusto Cury kept a busy schedule with meetings at Banco Bradesco, the National Association of Road Transport, and engagements with the Assembleia de Deus congregation.
Other contenders like Samara Martins campaigned in São Paulo with activist efforts, and Renan Santos held meetings in Espírito Santo. Romeu Zema met supporters in Minas Gerais, while candidates Leonardo Avalanche and Rui Costa Pimenta had no public events announced. This surge in campaign activities marks the final push in the race, underscoring the high stakes as candidates rally support across Brazil.
According to the latest polling data and candidate movements, Lula's strengthened lead and broadening demographic appeal position him favorably in the months ahead, though the contest remains closely watched amid intense campaigning nationwide.
This article was translated and synthesized from Brazilian sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
