Lula Widens Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Presidential Runoff Polls, Boosted by Growing Support Among Independents and Young Voters

A recent Genial/Quaest survey reveals that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has solidified a 6-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a potential second-round runoff of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, with Lula securing 44% support to Bolsonaro's 38%. This margin is the largest recorded by Quaest since January and reflects significant shifts in voter alignment, particularly among independents and non-Bolsonaro right-wing supporters.

Support for Flávio Bolsonaro among independent voters dropped notably from 31% to 24%, while Lula’s backing among the same group increased from 29% to 37%. Additionally, Bolsonaro’s support among non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters fell from 90% to 82%. These changes coincide with growing public suspicion about Bolsonaro’s involvement in alleged illegal activities linked to Banco Master, with 58% of Brazilians believing he may be hiding wrongdoing. Furthermore, 65% oppose his solicitation of funds from businessman Daniel Vorcaro related to a film project involving Jair Bolsonaro.

In the first round, Lula leads with 39% against Flávio’s 29%, alongside the rise of Renan Santos from Partido Missão who holds 3% by leveraging social media exposure. Hypothetical runoff matchups also favor Lula, who would defeat President Renan Santos with 45% to 31% and hold an advantage over other candidates such as Caiado and Zema.

The survey, conducted between June 5-8 among 2,004 respondents across 120 municipalities, also highlights an uptick in approval ratings for Lula's government. Approval has risen from 45% in February to 47%, while disapproval declined from 57% to 48%. Key demographic improvements include evangelical voters—where disapproval fell from 65% to 60% and approval increased from 30% to 35%—and younger voters aged 16 to 34, with approval climbing from 41% to 43%.

The improved government sentiment is attributed to programs such as Desenrola, which 71% of respondents credit with positively impacting their income, as well as recent income tax exemptions benefiting Brazilians earning up to R$5,000. Despite overall positive trends, support among voters earning more than five minimum wages saw a slight increase in disapproval.

This comprehensive polling paints a dynamic picture of Brazil's political landscape as the 2026 elections approach, underscoring Lula's strengthened position against Flávio Bolsonaro amid controversy and growing voter shifts across diverse demographics.