New Polls Show Lula Expanding Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Race

Recent polling data reinforce President Lula's growing advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. A Pesquisa Nexus/BTG survey conducted from May 22 to 24 with 2,045 respondents confirms Lula's lead at 40% compared to Bolsonaro's 35% in a likely first-round vote, representing a 5-point margin. In a second-round contest, Lula maintains a 4-point lead, polling at 47% against Bolsonaro's 43%. The survey also highlights Lula's dominance in spontaneous voting intentions, where he commands 36% over Bolsonaro’s 26% despite potential impacts from recent revelations involving Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.\n\nParallel findings from a Datafolha survey report a significant increase in Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro—from a 3 to 9-point margin within one week—although Lula’s overall approval ratings still trail his disapproval by six points, a decrease from nine points six days earlier. The Workers' Party (PT) expresses concern over Lula’s approval rating, as historically all re-elected presidents had positive public approval. PT officials believe the corruption baggage now weighs more heavily on Flávio Bolsonaro owing to his ties with Vorcaro, which may benefit Lula. To strengthen Lula’s reelection prospects, PT emphasizes the need to highlight government achievements and raise the president’s approval score before the October election, acknowledging this as a critical challenge.