PL Surges as Centrão Declines in Brazil's 2026 Congressional Elections

The 2026 National Congress elections in Brazil marked a significant shift in party power, with the Liberal Party (PL) markedly increasing its strength at the expense of the Centrão coalition. The PL boosted its representation in the Chamber of Deputies from 98 to 121 seats, becoming the largest party, while the Centrão's share fell from 44% to 40%. Notably, the combined seats of major Centrão parties—União Brasil, Progressistas, PSD, MDB, and Republicanos—shrunk from 226 to 207 deputies. The Unidas Brasil and Progressistas federation dropped from 98 to 87 deputies, and PSD, MDB, and Republicanos also experienced declines.

In the Senate, the PL’s dominance grew substantially, increasing its senators from 15 to 28, over one-third of the 81 seats. Conversely, PSD suffered the most severe drop, going from 14 to 5 senators, while Republicanos and the União Progressistas federation maintained their numbers. PT retained nine senators, but setbacks appeared for Lula’s base in several states.

The elections' results reveal a dynamic reconfiguration of Brazil’s political landscape, coinciding with the first-round presidential race where PL’s Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03% against Lula’s 45.16%, portending a fiercely contested runoff in October. Bolsonaro’s expanding influence in the South, Southeast, and Center-West contrasts with Lula’s Northeast stronghold. The changing political map also reflects shifts in state governance, with the PL winning five governorships and playing a critical role in the unfolding national power balance.

Flávio Bolsonaro has signaled intentions to leverage PL’s congressional growth to press for impeachment votes against Supreme Court ministers, especially targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Although Centrão’s influence has waned, it remains a key player in government formation given no party holds a majority of 257 votes in the Chamber.