Study Warns Brazil Faces Severe Economic Loss Due to Climate Change by 2070

A recent study by the United Nations Development Programme (Pnud) warns that Brazil and its neighboring countries could experience a combined loss of approximately 33% of their GDP by 2070 if significant investments in climate change adaptation and mitigation are not made. This economic impact is linked closely to environmental challenges. The Amazon rainforest plays a critical role in atmospheric circulation and rainfall generation, recirculating moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to various regions in Brazil and neighboring countries, which sustains agriculture and water availability.

Already, reductions in water volume at hydropower plants in central Brazil have been observed over the past 10 to 15 years, while São Paulo’s metropolitan water supply systems face low levels. Key sectors vulnerable to these changes include energy generation, sanitation, water consumption, and agriculture. Encouragingly, Brazil has seen the lowest accumulated deforestation rates in 11 years this past year and has set a commitment to achieve zero deforestation by 2030.

Complementing this economic outlook, the recently released GEO Brasil 2025 report by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change highlights further environmental stresses that exacerbate Brazil's economic risks. Supported by UNEP, FGV, and IPEA, the report reveals alarming increases in temperatures in the Pantanal and Cerrado biomes, at 3°C and 4°C respectively, along with air pollution causing some 51,000 premature deaths annually. While Brazil leads in renewable energy, its energy sector’s carbon emissions have risen from 11.3% to 18.3% between 2002 and 2023.

The report also underscores the strain on infrastructure, noting only 52.2% of sewage is treated nationally, and almost one-third of municipalities lack basic environmental management infrastructure. Agricultural expansion has grown substantially, increasing the farmland area from 187.3 million hectares in 1985 to 282.5 million hectares in 2022, alongside a 108% rise in pesticide sales.

Minister Marina Silva stressed the importance of the GEO Brazil report in confronting the ecological challenges threatening Brazil’s sustainable development and economic future. Analyst Pedro Côrtes emphasized the vital role of the Amazon in maintaining regional climates and sustaining economic activities. Without urgent and integrated policy actions, Brazil risks deep economic losses amplified by environmental degradation and climate change.