Unesp Develops Advanced Flood Prediction System to Aid Risk Monitoring in Bauru

In response to severe flooding incidents in Lençóis Paulista, São Paulo, including a devastating flood in January 2016 that caused two deaths and significant damage, researchers from the State University of São Paulo (Unesp) in Bauru have developed a new flood risk prediction system. Led by Professor Demerval Moreira alongside former meteorology student Thaísa Giovana Lopes, they created the Flood Probability Index (FPI) to estimate flood risk using rainfall data from Bauru's meteorological radar, eliminating the need for an extensive local rain gauge network.

The FPI uniquely integrates precipitation data with soil moisture simulations powered by the internationally recognized Jules software, which evaluates water absorption and evaporation by considering the local terrain. The system provides a flood risk value on a scale from zero to one, where values closer to one indicate a higher likelihood of flooding. Retrospective analyses of nine flooding events over the last decade, including the severe 2016 flood, showed the FPI achieved high accuracy despite limitations due to data constraints.

Planned for public access, an online flood warning system based on the FPI is expected to launch by summer 2026, offering an accessible tool to improve community preparedness. Published in the scientific journal Atmosphere in May, the research emphasizes the urgent need for innovative and accessible climate adaptation technologies to mitigate the consequences of increasingly frequent extreme weather events impacting cities like Bauru and other regions of São Paulo.