Vox Brasil Poll Shows Narrow Lead for Lula Over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Presidential Runoff

A recent poll conducted by Vox Brasil highlights a closely contested second round in Brazil's 2026 presidential election between incumbent President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). According to the survey, Lula holds a slim advantage with 46.4% voter intention compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 44.6%, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error of 2.15 percentage points.

When considering only valid votes, Lula leads 51% to 49%, indicating a tight race. Both candidates have seen an increase in support since the previous Vox Brasil poll, with Lula gaining 2.2 percentage points and Flávio rising by 1.9 percentage points. The poll also reveals that 45.3% of voters reject both candidates, signaling substantial voter dissatisfaction.

Conducted between October 15 and 17, 2026, with a sample of 2,100 voters aged 16 and older, the poll shows high voter commitment—93.5% of respondents feel their voting decision is already defined for the second round scheduled for October 25. Additionally, 76.5% of participants are certain they will vote, with 12.8% likely to do so.

The data also includes a spontaneous voting scenario where Lula has 50.6% of valid votes to Flávio’s 49.4%, underscoring the tight competition. The high rejection rate of 45.3% for both candidates highlights the polarized nature of the electorate.

With little more than a week before the runoff, these findings emphasize the importance of every vote in what promises to be an intense political battle. The election outcome remains uncertain, with the latest Vox Brasil poll reflecting a highly competitive landscape between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.