Brazil Faces Heightened Forest Fire Risks in 2026 Amid El Niño Challenges

Brazil is confronting increased risks of forest fires in 2026 due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to drive hotter and drier conditions across the country, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 63% chance that El Niño will reach a strong category this year, raising concern about fire outbreaks and their management.

In 2024, Brazil recorded its largest area burned by wildfires since 2012, according to the Environmental Satellite Applications Laboratory of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). Encouragingly, 2025 saw a significant drop to the third lowest recorded fire incidence, partly due to favorable climate and the rollout of the National Integrated Fire Management Policy (PNMIF). Approved in July 2024, the PNMIF marked a policy shift from a previously zero-tolerance approach to one emphasizing integrated fire management, including increased prescribed burns and expansion of firefighting resources.

This year, the Brazilian government allocated over R$1 billion—the highest budget in history—for firefighting efforts, deploying 240 brigades comprising 4,410 firefighters. Despite these efforts, challenges persist; Lívia Carvalho Moura, an ecologist, highlights uneven implementation across states and municipalities alongside budget uncertainties.

As of July 2026, 1,863 municipalities face fire risk scrutiny, with 615 on alert and 106 at high alert, notably in the Midwest and southern Amazon regions. João Paulo Sotero, deputy secretary and director of policies for deforestation control and fires at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, expressed confidence in the nation’s preparedness, citing lessons learned since the severe 2024 fire season.

Further, a Supreme Court ruling in May mandated federal and state governments to present detailed plans for mitigating El Niño's impacts, underscoring the urgency of coordinated action. While Brazil has made notable strides in fire management through policy and increased funding, the 2026 El Niño poses a significant test for the country's capacity to prevent and combat devastating wildfires.