Brazil-U.S. Trade Relations in 2026: Tariff Adjustments and Strategic Minerals Cooperation

The evolving trade dynamics between Brazil and the United States in 2026 feature significant developments on tariffs and strategic cooperation in critical minerals. A new global tariff of 10% on exports to the U.S., introduced in February 2026 following the U.S. Supreme Court’s invalidation of former President Trump's draconian tariffs, has notably benefited Brazil by reducing many export tariffs previously as high as 50%. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin highlighted that nearly half of Brazil’s exports to the U.S. will now face no additional tariffs. However, uncertainties linger regarding the approximately US$133 billion collected from tariffs now deemed illegal, while ongoing investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative into Brazil’s trade practices could lead to new tariff measures.

Simultaneously, the U.S. government is preparing a mission to Brazil in March 2026 centered on critical and strategic minerals partnership. Beginning March 16, culminating in a forum on March 18 in São Paulo, the visits will host members from the U.S. State Department, Department of Commerce, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. This high-level engagement aims to unlock negotiations, deepen partnerships, and evaluate potential U.S. investments in Brazilian mining projects, especially rare earths, graphite, and nickel. Brazil's vast rare earth reserves — the world’s second largest — are of particular interest, even though Brazilian production remains minimal and regulatory frameworks are lacking.

These discussions respond to the strategic imperative of reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese rare earth processing, a market currently dominated by China responsible for 91% of global refining. Projects like Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira rare earth deposit have already attracted U.S. interest, with letters of intent for financing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States. There is speculation that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may meet with the U.S. President in Washington on March 16 to discuss minerals cooperation, possibly following the São Paulo forum that could set the groundwork for a formal memorandum of understanding mirroring recent U.S. agreements with countries like India and Saudi Arabia.

These developments highlight a dual approach in Brazil-U.S. trade relations: relief and opportunity in tariffs for Brazilian exporters coupled with strategic long-term cooperation in critical mineral resources. Both areas carry high economic and geopolitical significance as they shape Brazil’s positioning in global trade and technological supply chains moving forward.