China Imposes New Tariffs and Quotas on Brazilian Beef Exports Starting 2026

Starting January 1, 2026, China will enforce a new tariff and quota system on beef imports, significantly impacting Brazil, the largest exporter to the Chinese market. The new policy introduces a 12% base tariff on beef imports alongside an additional 55% surcharge on volumes exceeding annual quotas. For 2026, China has set the total beef import quota at 2.7 million tons, of which Brazil will hold the largest share at approximately 1.1 million tons, representing roughly 41-44% of the total quota.

This new quota is notably lower than Brazil's export volume to China in 2025, which reached about 1.52 million tons by November, indicating potential constraints on Brazil's future export capacity under the new regulations. China’s Ministry of Commerce justified these measures as necessary to protect domestic cattle producers, who have suffered losses amid a high influx of imports. This action follows an investigation initiated in 2024 into the impact of foreign beef on China's livestock industry.

Brazil’s Agriculture and Livestock Minister, Carlos Fávaro, addressed the situation by downplaying the anticipated negative effects, emphasizing Brazil's preparedness and efforts to diversify export markets, including hopes for expanding beef shipments to Japan in 2026. He also highlighted ongoing negotiations aimed at maintaining Brazil’s ability to export beef to China without incurring the hefty 55% tariff, proposing that Brazil could assume quotas from countries failing to meet their export commitments or abstaining from shipments to China.

Despite this diplomatic approach, the Brazilian meat industry expresses concerns regarding the financial consequences, with the Brazilian Association of Meatpackers estimating potential revenue losses of up to US$3 billion in 2026. This could adversely affect investments in Brazil's cattle sector. The new tariff and quota system is set to last three years, with quotas planned to increase gradually to 2.8 million tons by 2028. The developments underscore the challenges and adjustments Brazil’s beef sector will face amid shifting global trade dynamics.

“As Brazil is very close to the quotas, we are diversifying markets to reduce dependence,” said Minister Fávaro, emphasizing ongoing efforts to mitigate risks from China’s policy shift. Negotiations with Chinese authorities are expected to continue throughout 2026 as details around quota management and implementation are finalized.