Flávio Bolsonaro Faces Declining Support Among Non-Bolsonaro Right-Wingers and Independents, Lula Widens Lead

Recent polling data from Quaest highlights significant challenges for Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL party's presidential pre-candidate, as he sees his support eroding among right-wing voters who do not support former president Jair Bolsonaro and among independents. Flávio's ties to banker Daniel Vorcaro emerged recently, which contributed to a movement of many independent voters into the undecided category. Despite this, Flávio retains solid backing among core Bolsonaro loyalists, who remain unfazed by the controversies surrounding his alliances.

The decline is quantitatively evident: support among right-wing non-Bolsonaro voters dropped from 90% in April to 74% in July, and independent voter support for Flávio fell from 33% to 27%. Concurrently, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) surged ahead, with independent support rising from 26% to 40%. Lula also leads in a potential second-round matchup against Flávio, holding 45% of voter intentions to Bolsonaro's 37%, marking Bolsonaro’s third consecutive monthly drop from 42% in April. In the first round, Lula commands a 40% to 28% lead.

Lula's rising popularity coincides with a government approval rating reaching 48% in 2026, the highest this year, reflecting positive public perception shifts. Meanwhile, Flávio's team remains hopeful, believing he is still the sole candidate capable of challenging Lula in the second round and optimistic about reclaiming undecided voters, who increased from 3% to 11% between April and July.

An emerging factor in the race is Renan Santos, founder of Movimento Brasil Livre, who promotes a conservative, socially engaged campaign, especially among younger voters. Santos is gradually gaining traction, with voting intentions rising, tightening the gap with Lula.

The poll, which sampled 2,004 individuals in 120 municipalities between July 10 and 13, underscores a shifting Brazilian political landscape where Lula strengthens his position while Flávio Bolsonaro must rebuild appeal beyond his base to remain competitive.