Lula Faces Political Blow as Congress and STF Internal Rift Undermine Supreme Court Nominee Messias

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suffered a rare political setback as his Supreme Federal Court (STF) nominee, Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate, marking a historic defeat for Lula. Messias received only 34 votes, seven short of the required minimum, with 42 senators voting against him. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre played a pivotal role in orchestrating the rejection and has reportedly indicated to the opposition that any new nomination would be postponed until after the elections. The rejection has strained relations between Lula’s Executive branch and the Senate, raising questions about the stability of his coalition, particularly with the weakening support from the Centrão faction in the Senate.

In addition to the Messias debacle, Lula faces another potential defeat on April 30, 2026, as Congress contemplates overruling his veto on the Dosimetry Bill (PL da Dosimetria). The bill aims to reduce sentences for those involved in coup-related acts, including ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. Overturning the veto would require 257 votes in the Chamber of Deputies and 41 in the Senate. Lula's allies criticize the opposition's push to counter the president’s decision, signaling further legislative hurdles for his administration.

Behind this political turmoil within the STF lies the complex "Banco Master" case, implicating key ministers like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli in connections with businessman Daniel Vorcaro, and also affecting Senate President Alcolumbre through pension fund dealings. André Mendonça, a minister and supporter of Messias’s nomination, now investigates the case as its relator. The internal STF power struggle pits Mendonça and allies against factions aligned with Moraes, Toffoli, and Flávio Dino, who oppose Messias. This rift in the Supreme Court influenced the resistance to Messias’s bid for the tribunal, with prior nomination politics also playing a part.

As the opposition and certain STF ministers align against Lula’s nominee, the administration navigates a politically charged environment marked by Senate opposition and internal STF fractures. Political analysts suggest that despite this humiliating setback, Lula is unlikely to sever ties with Alcolumbre, given his importance in future legislative projects. Ex-minister Gleisi Hoffman condemned the Senate alliance behind the defeat, and government leader Randolfe Rodrigues lamented the politically motivated rejection of Messias rather than a judgment of his qualifications.

With Congress poised to further challenge Lula by voting on the Dosimetry Bill veto and the STF divided over Messias’s nomination, the president's political strategy faces significant tests amid escalating tensions between the Executive, Congress, and Supreme Court factions.