Lula Faces Rising Disapproval Amidst Tight 2026 Election Race with Flávio Bolsonaro

Recent polling from Vox Brasil indicates President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is encountering increasing public disapproval as Brazil’s 2026 election approaches. As of late August 2026, Lula’s disapproval rating hit 53.3%, the highest in the series conducted by Vox Brasil, while his approval fell to 45.1%. This shift marks a three-percentage-point rise in disapproval since July, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction.

The survey, conducted from August 25 to 27 with 2,100 voters and a 2.15% margin of error, shows a politically polarized electorate. Voter intentions vary notably by income, with Lula leading among voters earning up to two minimum wages—securing 55% support in this group. However, among wealthier voters earning over ten minimum wages, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 43.7%, while Lula garners only 29.9%.

In the first-round election scenario, Lula is slightly ahead with 37.1% voter support, closely trailed by Bolsonaro at 34.8%. The margin of error makes this a statistical tie, underscoring a highly competitive contest. Rejection rates for both are also significant; Lula faces a 52.7% rejection rate, while Bolsonaro’s stands at 49.3%, positioning them as the most polarizing candidates ahead of other contenders like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado.

Overall, the data signal an intensified electoral battle with growing voter skepticism towards Lula’s presidency, despite his continued lead. The tightening race and rising disapproval highlight the evolving dynamics as Brazil moves towards the 2026 election.