Soybean Market Stalls in Brazil Amid Price Disparity Between Buyers and Sellers
Brazil's soybean market is witnessing sluggish trading due to a gap between buyer offers and seller price expectations amid high stock levels and currency shifts.
- • Soybean negotiations in Brazil have slowed due to price differences between buyers and sellers.
- • Soybean producers are capitalized and focusing on external valuation, distancing themselves from deals.
- • Buyers are cautious because of high stocks from the 2024/25 harvest and expectations of a record 2025/26 harvest.
- • Currency devaluation and falling export premiums are also impacting market dynamics.
Key details
Soybean trading in Brazil is experiencing a significant slowdown due to a persistent price gap between what producers are asking and what buyers are willing to pay. According to researchers from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea), this disparity has led to cautious behavior on both sides of the market.
Soybean producers in Brazil remain well-capitalized and are deliberately stepping back from negotiations to focus on external valuations instead. Buyers, meanwhile, are wary due to high stock levels from the 2024/25 harvest, expectations for a record-breaking 2025/26 harvest, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar, and a notable decline in export premiums. These factors have combined to restrict significant price movement, with soybean prices showing only minor fluctuations in recent weeks in the markets tracked by Cepea.
The corn market is also aligned with this trend of limited liquidity, with many sellers absent from the spot market and buyers restricting acquisitions to small volumes despite increased interest. External price recoveries and growing Brazilian exports are providing some support to internal prices. However, domestic factors such as favorable weather for summer crop planting—though some regions like Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul face risks from rainfall and hail—and the sizable internal stock surplus suggest potential price adjustments ahead.
As of November 8, Brazilian planting of the summer crop had reached 47.7% of the estimated area, representing a weekly increase of 4.9% and surpassing the five-year average by 2.2%, according to Conab data. This dynamic environment underscores the complexity facing Brazil's soybean market where external factors, currency fluctuations, and domestic production prospects influence a cautious and tentative trading atmosphere.
Overall, the disparity in pricing expectations between buyers and sellers is currently the main factor limiting the volume of soybean transactions in Brazil’s commodity markets, highlighting the delicate balance amidst anticipated harvest changes and economic variables.
This article was synthesized and translated from native language sources to provide English-speaking readers with local perspectives.