Brazil Projected to Reclaim 8th Largest Economy Spot by 2027, Agriculture Key to Growth

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Brazil is expected to ascend to the position of the world's 8th largest economy in 2027, with a projected GDP of US$ 2.80 trillion (R$ 14.65 trillion). This projection marks an improvement from Brazil's 10th place standing in 2026, when its GDP was approximately US$ 2.655 trillion. The country is anticipated to maintain this position through at least 2031.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook highlights that the United States and China will continue as the top two global economies, while India is projected to rise to fourth place, overtaking the UK and Japan. Brazil's best historical ranking was 7th, achieved in 1995 and between 2010 and 2014.

A critical driver behind Brazil's upward economic trajectory is its robust agricultural sector. In 2025, agriculture contributed significantly to the country's economic growth, accounting for 32.8% of Brazil's overall expansion that year. The agricultural GDP alone was about R$ 775.3 billion, roughly 6.1% of the total GDP, but when considering the entire agribusiness chain—which includes inputs, primary production, agro-industry, and services—the contribution surged to R$ 3.20 trillion, representing 25.13% of the economy.

Additionally, agricultural exports set a record in 2025 at US$ 169.2 billion, constituting nearly half (48.5%) of Brazil's total exports and generating a trade surplus of US$ 149.07 billion. The sector also plays a significant role in employment, providing jobs for 28.4 million people or 26.3% of the Brazilian workforce. The 2026/27 harvest is projected to break records with an expected production of 367.14 million tons and an expansion in the planted area.

This combined economic growth and export strength in agriculture underline the sector’s pivotal role in Brazil's economic rise. As one expert noted, the growth rate of 11.7% in the agricultural sector in 2025 outpaced other key sectors such as services and industry, underscoring its critical contribution.

In summary, Brazil's return to the 8th largest economy spot is closely tied to its dynamic agricultural sector that not only boosts GDP and trade but also supports millions of livelihoods across the country.