Lula's Electability Rises Amid Legislative Hurdles Ahead of 2026 Election
Lula's rising voter support contrasts with his administration's historic low legislative success rate, posing challenges for Brazil's 2026 election.
- • 33% of voters favor Lula as the best election outcome, up from 21% in May 2025.
- • Lula's government has the lowest legislative success rate since 1988, with only 25% of proposals approved.
- • Recent defeat of a key revenue measure highlights congressional challenges for Lula.
- • Political polarization and diminished executive power complicate legislative progress.
Key details
Recent surveys and political analysis reveal a complex picture for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as he prepares for the 2026 election in Brazil. According to a recent Quaest survey commissioned by Genial Investimentos, 33% of voters now consider Lula the best outcome for Brazil in an election, a significant increase from 21% in May 2025. This rising support contrasts with a decline in preference for outsiders, who dropped to 23% from 27% in August. Support for another right-wing candidate rose to 15%, though backing for former president Jair Bolsonaro fell to 14%. Despite this growing public favor, Lula's government faces substantial legislative challenges that may impact his campaign.
Lula's administration has recorded the lowest legislative success rate since Brazil’s redemocratization in 1988, with only 25% of proposed bills being approved. Out of 239 legislative proposals, only 62 have passed, highlighting difficulties such as the recent rejection of Medida Provisória 1.303, which aimed to increase government revenue by taxing financial investments and could have generated R$ 20.6 billion by 2026. Experts point to diminished executive influence over Congress, a fragmented and polarized legislative body, and changes in legislative processes as key reasons behind these poor results. Political analysts warn that this legislative stagnation poses risks to Lula's ability to deliver government promises and could complicate his bid for a fourth term.
Despite deficits in legislative progress, government leaders maintain optimism, suggesting that advancing key economic projects could improve Lula's electoral prospects. The challenge remains to translate public opinion gains into tangible policy achievements that strengthen the government’s position ahead of the 2026 election. Additionally, public perceptions show a divide, as 44% of respondents associate patriotism and anti-corruption more with right-wing politics, while only 28% identify those traits with the left, reflecting ongoing political polarization.
This evolving landscape suggests Lula's growing popularity faces a critical test in Congress, where his administration’s ability to articulate and pass legislation could directly influence his chances in the upcoming presidential race.