Lula Widens Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro in Latest 2026 Polls, but Caution Remains
Datafolha polling shows Lula increasing his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 presidential race, though both parties advise caution amid shift in voter preferences.
- • Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points in first-round polling, 40% to 31%.
- • In second-round simulations, Lula has a four-point advantage over Flávio, 47% to 43%.
- • Flávio Bolsonaro holds the highest rejection rate among candidates, surpassing Lula.
- • The poll's margin of error is two percentage points, indicating the race remains close technically.
Key details
Recent Datafolha polling reveals a significant shift in Brazil's 2026 presidential race, with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) gaining a clear advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In a rapid change over just one week, Lula moved from a statistical tie with Flávio to a four-point lead in second-round simulations, with 47% to Flávio's 43%. This shift also reflects a broader nine-point gap in the first-round polling, as Lula holds 40% voter intention compared to Bolsonaro's 31%, down from 35% previously.
Flávio Bolsonaro now faces the highest rejection rate among presidential candidates, overtaking Lula's earlier position in this regard. Despite the notable difference, the poll's margin of error stands at two percentage points, meaning the current race remains tightly competitive technically.
The polling also found that 9% of respondents intend to vote blank or null, with an additional 2% undecided, underscoring some electoral volatility ahead of the election. The results follow recent revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's conversations with banker Daniel Vorcaro, which may have influenced voter sentiment and contributed to his decline in popularity.
Representatives from both PT and PL urge caution in interpreting these results, highlighting the fluidity of public opinion days before the election cycle intensifies.
The Datafolha survey paints a complex portrait of the political dynamics shaping Brazil's upcoming presidential race, where electoral preferences and candidate standings can shift significantly within short periods. Lula's improved numbers stand in contrast to Flávio Bolsonaro's challenges regarding voter rejection and recent controversies, but the margin of error keeps the contest open at this stage.
This article was translated and synthesized from Brazilian sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
