Middle East Conflict Causes Brazil's Fertilizer Consumption to Drop in 2026

Brazil's fertilizer consumption is expected to decline by approximately 2 million tons in 2026, falling from a record 49.1 million tons in 2025 to an estimated 47.2 million tons, as a result of soaring prices and financial pressures faced by agricultural producers. According to a report from Rabobank, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted global fertilizer trade, driving significant price increases. In 2025, 88% of the fertilizers used in Brazil were imported, with 36% of urea imports originating from the Middle East, down from 53% in 2021. Prices for urea at Brazilian ports have surged nearly 76% from January to mid-March 2026, further straining supply and affordability for farmers. The report highlights producers' financial difficulties due to shrinking profit margins, which are making it challenging to sustain fertilizer deliveries at levels seen in prior years. This situation underscores Brazil's vulnerability to global geopolitical tensions affecting its agricultural input supply chain and suggests a tough year ahead for Brazilian agriculture reliant on fertilizers from international markets.