Political and Public Divides Deepen Following Deadly Rio Police Operation
The deadly Rio police operation in late October 2025 has polarized public opinion and heightened political tensions, with mixed voter support and strategic maneuvers by both Lula's government and opposition forces.
- • Police operation in Rio de Janeiro resulted in 121 deaths, the deadliest in Brazil’s history.
- • 57% of Rio residents approved the operation, with political divisions along ideological lines.
- • Lula adopted a cautious and defensive stance, avoiding public condemnation of the operation.
- • Right-wing governors formed 'Consórcio da Paz' for joint security efforts; Governor Cláudio Castro’s approval rating rose significantly.
- • Surveys show strong support for police actions among independents and right-wing voters; leftist voters remain divided.
Key details
On October 28, 2025, a police operation in Rio de Janeiro resulted in 121 deaths, marking it the deadliest in Brazil's history and sparking intense public and political reactions. The operation, conducted under Governor Cláudio Castro's management, garnered mixed reactions across the political spectrum and among residents of Rio and its metropolitan area.
According to a Datafolha survey cited by ABC do ABC, 57% of local residents approved the police assault. The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva adopted a cautious approach, avoiding direct condemnation while defending coordinated efforts to combat organized crime, as reported by ABC do ABC. Lula’s tone sought to mitigate political backlash and preclude opposition attacks linked to the operation.
A separate poll by Pesquisa Genial/Quaest, detailed by CNN Brasil, revealed that only left-leaning voters remain divided over the operation, while a majority of independent and right-wing voters strongly support such police actions. Specifically, 51% of lulista voters support the operation, with 46% opposed, while 72% of independents and 93%-94% of right-wing, non-Bolsonaro, and Bolsonaro supporters respectively endorsed police operations. This partisanship extends to political figures, with Governor Cláudio Castro's approval rating rising by 10 points following the event.
In political response, conservative governors have established the “Consórcio da Paz” alliance for joint security efforts, a move that analysts perceive as bolstering right-wing leaders distancing themselves from previous Bolsonaro controversies, as reported by ABC do ABC. PT leaders view the operation as a political lifeline for the opposition, although aides believe the impact on the 2026 presidential race will be limited.
The Lula administration continues to commission opinion polls to assess the operation's influence on public perception, intending to counter the opposition without overly engaging in the issue. This strategy reflects a defensive governmental stance amid an environment where public security dominates political discourse and elections loom.
Overall, the deadly police operation has intensified political polarization and public debate in Brazil, highlighting shifts in voter approval patterns and strategic positioning by major political actors.