Polling Shows Close Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Amid Growing Government Disapproval

Recent polling data ahead of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a tightly contested race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and opposition candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, set against a backdrop of rising dissatisfaction with Lula's government.

The Quaest poll released on September 21 shows Lula with 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round, while a potential runoff poll surprisingly places Bolsonaro ahead with 42% against Lula's 41%. Similarly, the BTG/Nexus survey places Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%. Political scientist Daniela Costanzo of Cebrap described the campaign as "mild," noting polling numbers have remained stable with minor fluctuation, reflecting voter disillusionment and a general lack of excitement in the electorate.

Costanzo observed a pronounced polarization between Lula and bolsonarism representatives, underlined by a surge in mentions of the Bolsonaro family—from 15% to 21% in a week—linked to the Banco Master scandal. While voter migration in a second round remains uncertain, especially as Bolsonaro could potentially attract voters from other candidates, Costanzo underscored that the transfer of votes is not straightforward. She argued that Lula's prospects improve if he can build a broad pro-democracy coalition as in the 2022 election.

Concurrently, the latest Quaest government approval poll reveals increasing dissatisfaction with Lula’s administration. Half of respondents disapprove of the government, up from previous measures, with 44% approving. Negative evaluations rose to 42% from 38%, though positive evaluations increased slightly from 32% to 33%. Views on whether Lula's current term is better than Jair Bolsonaro's remain evenly divided, with 42% each for better and worse.

The poll comes shortly after the federal government announced an increase in Bolsa Família payments from R$600 to R$691. While opposition parties criticized the increase as electoral manipulation, the Supreme Federal Court declared the adjustment legal. According to Quaest's director Felipe Nunes, voting intentions among Bolsa Família beneficiaries did not shift despite the payment rise.

Economic conditions also weigh heavily on public sentiment, with only 10% of Brazilians reporting income growth surpassing inflation.

Overall, this data paints a picture of a closely fought presidential race with growing voter dissatisfaction and an electorate largely undecided or disillusioned, setting the stage for an intense and uncertain election period ahead.