US Tariff Policy Shake-Up Brings Mixed Outcomes for Brazilian Exports

Brazilian exporters are navigating a complex landscape following the recent overturning of US tariffs by the Supreme Court, only to face newly imposed import duties announced by former President Trump. On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled against the extensive tariffs previously implemented, offering Brazilian exporters a momentary reprieve. However, within days, Trump declared fresh tariffs of 15% on nearly all imports, set to take effect on February 24 and lasting for five months, introducing further uncertainty to Brazilian-U.S. trade relations.

This series of developments arrived amid a backdrop where Brazil’s exports to the US fell by 6.7% to $37.7 billion last year due to prior tariffs on steel and aluminum. Despite this, Brazil achieved an all-time high total export value of $348.3 billion in 2025 by redirecting shipments to other global markets. The removal of the original tariffs is expected to reduce costs particularly for higher value-added products such as furniture and ceramics, benefiting sectors that include industrial and agricultural goods.

Financial markets responded positively to the Supreme Court decision, with the Ibovespa index hitting a record high and the Brazilian real strengthening against the US dollar. Companies like Embraer and Taurus Armas, previously hit hard by the tariffs, reported significant gains. Additionally, legal experts anticipate that affected companies with operations in the US may pursue refunds on overpaid tariffs, potentially imposing a $175 billion cost on the US Treasury.

Brazilian diplomacy is playing a critical role in these evolving trade dynamics. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plans to discuss tariff issues directly with Trump in an upcoming March meeting, aiming to solidify trade relations and address outstanding tariffs on industrial goods. Lula’s recent international engagements, including a visit to India where he set ambitious bilateral trade targets, underscore Brazil’s broader strategy to expand global market access and ensure economic stability.

In summary, while the Supreme Court’s ruling provided initial relief, the subsequent new tariffs by Trump complicate the outlook for Brazilian exporters. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and legal pursuits remain pivotal as Brazil seeks to safeguard and grow its trade interests in the face of US tariff policy volatility.