Bolsonaro Conviction Fails to End Coup Threat; Eduardo Bolsonaro Faces Rising Rejection Ahead of 2026

The Guardian warns that former President Jair Bolsonaro's recent conviction will not extinguish the threat of military coups in Brazil. Despite Bolsonaro's fall, the military's entrenched coup mentality remains intact, keeping Brazilian democracy at risk. Experts highlight that many military personnel involved in the January 8, 2023 coup attempt, including the elite "kids pretos" unit, remain unidentified and unpunished. This coup attempt had chilling plans to assassinate key leaders such as current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes. Notably, during the coup night, two army generals hindered police efforts to arrest protesters who had camped near military barracks, enabling their escape. Although over 1,000 individuals have been prosecuted for the January 8 riot, many more participated without consequence, with financiers also remaining free. Investigations suggest the coup was aborted only because the Army and Air Force chiefs declined involvement — leaving the Navy commander Bolsonaro’s sole military ally. Despite knowing of the coup plan, these commanders did not inform authorities. Meanwhile, military academies continue to indoctrinate personnel by framing the 1964 coup as a "revolution" and promoting a right-wing anti-communist narrative.

Concurrently, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son and a federal deputy from São Paulo, has become the political figure with the highest rejection rate nationwide, reaching 68% according to a Genial/Quaest survey. This marks a 13-percentage point rise since January. Eduardo, who has been based in the United States since February and is considering a presidential run in 2026 depending on his father's eligibility, also faces an ethics inquiry in the Chamber of Deputies that could revoke his mandate. While Eduardo’s potential voter support fluctuated between 20% and 22% during the year, his recognition among voters increased. His political maneuvering in the U.S., seeking sanctions on Brazilian authorities related to his father’s Supreme Court case, has sparked legal complaints and political tensions. Former President Jair Bolsonaro himself carries a 63% rejection rate, while Michelle Bolsonaro's stands at 61%, up from 49% last year.

These developments underscore Brazil's ongoing political volatility. The enduring military coup threat, alongside the polarizing influence of the Bolsonaro family in politics, presents a complex challenge to the stability of Brazilian democracy as the 2026 elections approach.