BTG/Nexus Poll Shows Technical Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead of Brazil's 2026 Presidential Runoff

A recent BTG/Nexus poll conducted from July 10 to 12, 2026, reveals a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in the upcoming second round of Brazil's presidential election. Lula leads marginally with 47% against Bolsonaro's 44%, a difference well within the 2% margin of error. The survey included 2,003 respondents aged 16 and older and reflects consistent results from the latest six editions of this poll series.

In the first round, Lula also maintains an edge, polling at 40% compared to Bolsonaro's 34%. However, Lula’s advantage has decreased compared to previous months. Other candidates, including Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), lag behind in runoff scenarios, with Lula holding leads of 47% to 40% and 47% to 38%, respectively. Rising liberal-conservative candidate Renan Santos from MBL has gained traction, particularly among younger voters, catapulting him into a virtual tie with Zema and Caiado.

Voter sentiment highlights key election issues such as security (29%), corruption (24%), and health (23%). Notably, Lula is favored for addressing security concerns, while Flávio Bolsonaro is viewed better on corruption matters. Rejection rates remain high for both frontrunners, with Bolsonaro facing a 50% rejection rate and Lula 46%. Roughly 8% of voters intend to vote null, blank, or remain undecided. Additionally, 70% of respondents indicate their vote choice is firm, whereas nearly 29% remain open to change.

The poll also found that 36% of voters prefer Lula as the next president, while 32% favor a candidate supported by Jair Bolsonaro, underscoring the deep political division. This polling snapshot depicts a closely contested election season with definitive voter bases but significant portions of the electorate still undecided or conflicted.

As the 2026 presidential race progresses, such narrow margins and high rejection levels suggest a dynamic campaign environment will shape the final outcome.