Mixed Prospects and High Indecision Mark 2026 Gubernatorial Polls in Brazil's Key States
Polls from Rio Grande do Sul and Goiás highlight tight gubernatorial races marked by significant voter uncertainty as Brazil's 2026 state elections approach.
- • Juliana Brizola and Luciano Zucco are tied in Rio Grande do Sul with high voter indecision at 62%.
- • Daniel Vilela leads the Goiás race with 37% and wins decisively in second-round matchups.
- • Gabriel Souza faces challenges due to low recognition in Rio Grande do Sul.
- • Voter indecision remains high in both gubernatorial and senatorial races across the states.
Key details
Recent Genial/Quaest polling data reveal varying dynamics in the 2026 gubernatorial races in Brazilian states, with voter indecision playing a significant role alongside tightly contested matchups.
In Rio Grande do Sul, Juliana Brizola (PDT) and Luciano Zucco (PL) are nearly neck-and-neck heading into the second round, with Brizola holding 35% and Zucco 31%. Their first-round support also tracks closely at 24% and 22%, respectively, while Gabriel Souza (MDB) lags at just 6%. Despite these figures, an overwhelming 62% of voters remain undecided or open to changing their preferences, signaling great volatility. Brizola enjoys backing primarily from left-wing voters and independents, whereas Zucco resonates more with the right-wing base. Souza struggles with a recognition deficit, with only 15% identifying him as the successor to outgoing governor Eduardo Leite. On the senatorial front, Manuela D'Ávila (Psol) commands a lead with 15% first-choice votes, though 39% of voters remain undecided in this race as well.
Meanwhile, in Goiás, Daniel Vilela (MDB) leads decisively with 37% in the first round, followed by former governor Marconi Perillo (PSDB) at 21%. Wilder Morais (PL) and Luis Cesar Bueno (PT) have smaller shares at 11% and 3%, respectively. Twenty percent of voters are still undecided, and 7% intend to cast blank or null votes. Vilela also shows strength in simulated runoffs, beating Perillo 52% to 28% and Morais 54% to 16%. Vilela benefits from a 50% approval rating, contrasting with Perillo’s 46% rejection. Senate candidate Gracinha Caiado (União) leads with 20% support. At the federal level, Ronaldo Caiado holds a 33% lead in presidential preference within Goiás, narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 27%, while Lula trails at 23%. In a hypothetical Lula vs. Bolsonaro runoff, Bolsonaro leads 47% to 35%.
These polling snapshots from two vital states underscore the fragmented and fluid political climate that will shape Brazil's gubernatorial contests this October. High indecision rates emphasize the competitive nature of the races and the potential for shifts as campaigns intensify.
This article was translated and synthesized from Brazilian sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
